2023 Coaching Changes

AAC

Charlotte

New HC: Biff Poggi (Michigan Associate HC)

New OC: Mike Miller (Maryland co-OC)

New DC: Ryan Osborn (Ravens defensive assistant)

Grade: B-

Charlotte is close to quite a few recruiting hot beds and brought in a guy who knows everyone in the DMV area with lots of experience on his staff at some of the top programs.

Gambling View: A team to look to back in the 2nd half of the year. Would expect them to play more responsibly.

Florida Atlantic

New HC: Tom Herman (TV, Texas HC, Houston HC)

Charlie Frye ( PSU offensive analyst and analytics coordinator, Dolphins QB Coach, CMU OC)

Roc Bellantoni (Auburn LB, ST Co)

Grade: A-

Herman has a fantastic pedigree to bring to FAU, a school normally near the top of the recruiting ranks for their conference. Bellantoni doesn't have too much experience calling defensive plays.

Gambling View: An over team, and one to back.

Navy

New HC: Brian Newberry (Navy DC)

New OC: Grant Chesnut ((Kennesaw St OC)

New DC: PJ Volker (Navy LB)

Grade: B

Newberry understands the Navy culture and the defense should stay under his and PJ's tutelage. Chesnut has led some of the best rushing offenses in FCS, that does do a decent job passing. I expect the offense to improve.

Gambling View: Team to back.

North Texas

New HC: Eric Morris (Wazzou OC, Incarnate Word HC, TTU OC)

New OC: Jordan Davis (Wazzou OA, Incarnate Word WR)

New DC: Matt Caponi (Iowa State CB)

Grade: C

Morris has experience in Texas but not much as a head coach and his track record at Wazzou and even UIW aren't super attractive. I do think Caponi will be solid.

Gambling View: Under and team to fade.

Temple

New DC: Everett Withers

Grade: C-

Lots of experience calling defense, but none since 2013. Former DC DJ Eliot did alot of nice things with Temple D in one year.

Gambling View: Over team.

Tulane

New DC: Shiel Wood (Troy DC)

Grade: B

Tulane first had Guidry but he bolted to Miami, so they snagged Wood from Troy, who led a really solid defense.

Gambling View: Neutral.

Tulsa

New HC: Kevin Wilson (OSU OC)

New OC: Steve Spurrier Jr (Miss St OA)

New DC: Chris Polizzi (Tennessee Martin DC)

Grade: C-

They may piece together the offense, but lots of missing pieces from personnel and not convinced anyone on this staff has the recruiting chops to change that.

Gambling View: Fade and Overs.

UAB:

New HC: Trent Dilfer (Lipscomb Academy HS)

New OC: Alex Mortensen (Alabama Analyst)

Grade: D

Dilfer may unravel everything Bill Clark did to get UAB to this point. His name value may bring recruits, but not convinced this staff is ready to coach a mid-level G5 CFB Program.

Gambling View: Fade.

South Florida

New HC: Alex Golesh (Tennessee OC)

New OC: Matt Merritt (Ga So RB) /Joel Gordon (Iowa St PG Co)

New DC: Todd Orlando (FAU DC)

Grade: B

It's a pretty big job for someone as a first time OC, but I trust that Golesh will atleast get the offense right to match with the South Florida talent. Orlando has tons of experience with Ds.

Gambling View: Overs.

UTSA

New OC: Justin Burke (UTSA TE)

Grade: C

Gambling View: Neutral

ACC

Boston College

New OC: Steve Shimko (BC TE), Rob Chudzinski (BC Special Assistant)

New DC: Aazaar Abdul-Rahim (BC D PG Co), Sean Duggan (BC LB)

Grade: C

There is continuity here but BC is at a point where they may need to have a refresh.

Gambling View: Fade.

Clemson

New OC: Garrett Riley (TCU OC)

Grade: A-

No one expected Dabo to make a change given his propensity to promote from within the organization. Riley just led TCU to a National Championship and should significantly help this offense.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Duke

New DC: Tyler Santucci (Texas A&M Co DC)

Grade: B+

Elko has experience with Santucci from his time on the A&M staff and Santucci help orchestrate one of the best defense in the country at A&M.

Gambling View: Team to back and unders.

Georgia Tech

New HC: Brent Key (GT Interim)

New OC: Buster Faulkner (UGA Analyst)

New DC: Kevin Sherrer (NYG LB)

Grade: D

Key caught fire and got a team to focus and finish the year strong, but he has minimal experience as a HC and his coordinator hires are rather suspect for a P5 program. This is a mid-level G5 staff by most metrics.

Gambling View: Fade.

Louisville

New HC: Jeff Brohm (Purdue HC)

New OC: Brian Brohm (Purdue OC)

New DC: Ron English (Purdue Co-DC)

Grade: B+

Brohm brings a P5 staff with P5 experience to Louisville. An upgraded staff to the previous.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Miami

New OC: Shannon Dawson (Houston OC)

New DC: Lance Guidry (Marshall DC)

Grade: B-

UH fans were pretty happy when Dawson got hired away but Guidry is one of the best coordinator hires of the entire cycle so an A and a C- blends out to a B-.

Gambling View: Under team.

NC State

New OC: Robert Anae (Syracuse OC)

Grade: B

Anae showed his chops both at UVA and then Cuse, and now teams up with his former UVA QB Brennen Armstrong at NC State. The offense should improve.

Gambling View: Team to back.

North Carolina

New OC: Chip Lindsay (UCF OC)

Grade: C

Phil Longo does a really good job getting offenses into the Top 25. Lindsay will have his work cut out for him here.

Gambling View: Under team.

Syracuse

New OC: Jason Beck (Syracuse QB)

New DC: Rocky Long (New Mexico DC)

Grade: B

The DC hire is great - Rocky is essentially the godfather of the 3-3-5 and will keep the same D Cuse has. Beck has almost no play calling experience, so that is not the best hire.

Gambling View: Under team.

Big Ten

Illinois

New DC: Aaron Henry (Illinois DB)

Grade: C+

Henry learned under Walters but has no experience calling plays. The hope is that this keeps continuity, but there is a chance it doesn't.

Gambling View: Fade and Overs.

Indiana

Matt Guerreri (OSU D Analyst)

Grade: D

Guerreri was responsible for the Duke D that saw a decline from 46th to 69th to 110th over the span of his time there. Not sure his 1 year at OSU (who's defense struggled at times), resurrected his play calling chops.

Gamblind View: Fade and Overs.

Maryland

New OC: Josh Gattis (Miami OC), Kevin Sumlin (Houston Gamblers)

Grade: B

While both of these guys have flamed out as of late, they have tons of experience and if Locksley can blend their knowledge, it should help improve this offense and recruiting.

Gambling View: Neutral.

Minnesota

New OC: Matt Simon (UM Co OC), Greg Harbaugh (UM QB Coach)

Grade: C

Fleck didn't go too far in attempt to recreate his offense which could use a breath of fresh air.

Gambling View: Unders.

Nebraska

New HC: Matt Rhule (Panthers HC, Baylor HC)

New OC: Marcus Satterfield (SC OC)

New DC: Tony White (Syracuse DC)

Grade: B-

The Gamecock fans were over the moon when Satterfield got hired away as he really hurt that offense. Tony White coaches a very good flyover 3-3-5 defense, so that blends out this grade. Satterfield is an F.

Gambling View: Unders.

Northwestern

New DC: David Braun (NDSU DC)

Grade: B

Braun did great work with the NDSU defense, winning two national championships allowing just 15 points per game over the 4 years.

Gambling view: Unders.

Ohio State

New OC: Brian Hartline (OSU WR)

Grade: B+

It's unlikely that Day will turn over all playcalling duties, but if he does, expect there to be some possible headaches here. Hartline doesn't have extensive play-calling experience, and if Day wants out of the day to day of that, there may be a learning curve. Hartline is the best WR recruiter in the country though.

Gambling View: possibly unders.

Purdue

New HC: Ryan Walters (Illinois DC)

New OC: Graham Harrell (WVU OC)

New DC: Kevin Kane (Illinois OLB)

Grade: B

I like the D Walters calls and Harrell should be able to make any offense decent, but the concern here is HC ability in a tough conference at a place that is tough to recruit at.

Gambling View: Possibly a team to back.

Rutgers

New OC: Kirk Ciarrocca (Minnesota OC)

Grade: D-

Anywhere Ciarrocca has gone recently has seen offenses slog and I suspect Rutgers is no different. I don't expect this offense to improve much, if at all.

Gambling View: unders.

Wisconsin

New HC: Luke Fickell (UC HC)

New OC: Phil Longo (UNC OC)

New DC: Mike Tressel (UC DC)

Grade: A

This is a fantastic hire all around. Fickell understands the midwest and B1G, Tressel coached a great UC D and has B1G experience and Longo makes any offense better, and much easier.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Big 12

Baylor

New DC: Matt Powledge (Oregon Co DC)

Grade: B

Was on Aranda's origional Baylor staff so likely is a good plug and play here. Not much will change with Aranda calling the shots still.

Gambling View: Neutral.

BYU

New DC: Jay HIll (Weber State HC)

Grade: B-

Lots of HC expereince and will introduce a 4 man front and will look to slow opponents run game and bring pressure. Could cause early secondary issues.

Gambling View: Look to overs early.

Cincinnati

New HC: Scott Satterfield (Louisville HC)

New OC: Brad Glenn (Virginia Tech PGC)

New DC: Bryan Brown (Louisville DC), Nate Fuqua (Ga St DC)

Grade: C+

Satt was hired away from Louisville by UC and always struggled to hit the expectations in some of the years when they were set high. Satt calls the offensive plays, but Glenn's experience at VT is not promising given their performance last year.

Gambling View: Team to fade.

Iowa St

New OC: Nate Scheelhaase (ISU RGC)

Grade: C

Scheelhaase may be a rising star, but he's never called an offense before. He is a former QB so the hope is that he can improve the QB play, but without playcalling experience, I can't give this a higher rank.

Gambling View: Neutral for now, but maybe a team to back depending on how the offense looks.

Oklahoma State

New DC: Bryan Nardo (D2 Gannon DC)

Grade: C-

Gundy has gone off the reservation to make hires before and this one is no different. Hard to imagine that there wasn't a better option out there, but hey, it may work.

Gambling View: look to take overs early.

TCU

New OC: Kendall Briles (Arkansas OC)

Grade: B

Dykes calls alot of this offense, but Briles is a good name to add to the staff and he has alot of experience with exactly what Dykes wants to do.

Gambling View: Neutral.

UCF

New OC: Darin Hinshaw (UAB OC)

New DC: Addison Williams (UCF DB)

Grade: C

Gus will have his hands all over the offense so Hinshaw's grade escapes severe scrutiny but the secondary fell off last year quite a bit under Williams watch. He's only ever been a DC at Furman and Tusculum.

Gambling View: Over and team to fade.

West Virginia

New OC: Chad Scott (WVU RB)

Grade: D

Brown likely didn't want to hire his replacement so promoted from within. Nothing exciting or innovative about this hire.

Gambling View: Under and team to fade.

Conference USA

Liberty

New HC: Jamey Chadwell (Coastal Carolina HC)

New OC: Willy Korn / Newland Isaac (Coastal Carolina)

Grade: B+

Chadwell's offensive scheme is pretty solid and they retained the atleast Skylor Magee from the prior staff from a defense that was very good.

Gambling View: Unders given pace based on how the D looks early.

Sam Houston State

New OC: Brad Cornelsen (VT OC)

Grade: C

Cornelsen worked under Justin Fuente at Memphis and then VT, with some decent offenses. I don't think this is a great hire, but isn't a terrible one either.

Gambling View: Neutral

Western Kentucky

New OC: Drew Hollingshead (Miss St Inside WR)

Grade: C

Given that Helton is largely in charge of the offensive operation, little probably changes but Hollingshead has Air Raid experience.

Gambling View: Neutral

Independent

Army

New OC: Drew Thatcher (D2 Nebraska-Kearney)

Grade: B-

Thatcher comes from the unknown but ran some option but operated out of shotgun and spread offense. Don't expect them to fully deviate, but this will be a different offense.

Gambling View: A team to likely fade until they get the personnel to run the new offense.

Notre Dame

New OC: Gerad Parker (Notre Dame TE)

Grade: F

A school like Notre Dame should always be able to hire a proven entity and Parker is very far from that. He has barely had a season calling plays and got demoted after his first season at WVU. This is a really underwhelming hire.

Gambling View: fade the offense when possible, even with better personnel in place.

MAC

Bowling Green

New DC: Steven Morrison (BG LB)

Grade: C-

The BG defense fell off a bunch last year when they should have taken a step forward and Morrison was a part of that staff. Shouldn't expect much different from what he brings to the table.

Gambling View: Neutral

Buffalo

New OC: DJ Mangus (UCF D Analyst, LSU PGC, Panthers assistant, LSU Analyst)

New DC: Robert Wright (Duke D Analyst)

Grade: D+

Mangus has been attached to Joe Brady for quite some time (college roommates), but has never caught on independently - this is his chance Wright has never called defensive plays. Uphill battle.

Gambling View: Team to fade and possibly overs.

Kent State

New HC: Kenni Burns (Minnesota RB)

New OC: Matt Johnson (Kent St RB)

New DC: Dave Duggan (Troy Dir of Recruiting)

Grade: F

This staff is completely green to almost all of their coaching roles. Kent State doesn't have many choices, but they could have done better in all roles.

Gambling View: No option but to fade. Possibly Overs depending on what type of offense Johnson wants to call.

Miami OH

New OC: Pat Welsh (Miami OH TE)

Grade: D

Miami is positioned as one of the premium MAC programs but this will be Welsh's first time calling plays and he doesn't have that great of a coaching resume.

Gambling View: Under team.

Western Michigan

New HC: Lance Taylor (Louisville OC)

New OC: BIlly Cosh (Richmond OC)

Grade: C-

Taylor has experience in midwest and should look to revive one of the worst offenses in the country. That said, almost every coach on the staff is at the highest level they've ever coached.

Gambling View: Over and a team to fade.

Mountain West

Boise State

New OC: Bush Hamdan (Missouri QB)

Grade: D+

Boise is a program that can draw from a better pool than Hamdan. He doesn't have the best track record of offensive play-calling duties.

Gambling View: Under team.

Fresno State

New OC: Pat McCann (Fresno St WR)

Grade: C+

McCann was on staff so little likely changes, and he brings some experience from EWU as well. He has a limited play calling background, but should help the WR room.

Gambling View: Neutral and possibly overs.

New Mexico

New OC: Bryant Vincent (UAB OC)

New DC: Troy Reffett (UNM CB)

Grade: C

Vincent is a solid B hire. He comes in with HC and playcalling experience but Reffett was an internal hire that definitely could have been better.

Gambling View: Neutral

UNLV

New HC: Barry Odom (Arkansas DC)

New OC: Brennan Marion (Texas WR)

New DC: Michael Scherer (Arkansas LB)

Grade: A-

I really like Odom and think he'll do a good job here, and think Marion is a great hire as well. Odom should have his hands all over the defense, especially with Scherer working under him at Arkansas.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Utah State

New DC: Joe Cauthen (Stephen F Austin D, Buffalo DC)

Grade: B-

Cauthen may employ the same approach he did while at SFA, which is aggression as they were one of the best in creating turnovers. Otherrwise, his track record is spotty at best.

Gambling View: Neutral.

PAC 12

Arizona State

New HC: Kenny Dillingham (Oregon OC)

New OC: Beau Baldwin (Cal Poly HC)

New DC: Brian Ward (Wazzou DC)

Grade: B

You can't give a P5 team a grade higher than B when they hire a first time head coach, but Dillingham checks alot of boxes and formed a nice staff.

Gambling View: team to back.

California

New OC: Jake Spavital (Texas St HC)

Grade: B

Spavital should be able to help this offense in alot of different ways, but primarily to find more consistency.

Gambling View: team to back.

Colorado

New HC: Deion Sanders (Jackson St HC)

New OC: Sean Lewis (Kent St HC)

New DC: Charles Kelly (Alabama Safeties)

Grade: B-

The staff is pretty good; what they do with the portal and recruiting is a different story, but the pedigree of the coordinators is decent.

Gambling View: Overs and possibly a team to back in the right spots.

Oregon

New OC: Will Stein (UTSA OC)

New DC: Chris Hampton (Tulane DC)

Grade: C+

The downgrade from Dillingham to Stein may be pretty significant, but the Oregon personnel may cover that up for a season. Hampton I'm less concerned about given Lanning's defensive prowess.

Gambling View: Neutral '23, possible fade/under in '24.

Stanford

New HC: Troy Taylor (Sac St HC)

New DC: Bobby April (Wisconsin OLB)

Grade: B+

This is a good hire on paper and schematically, but may take some time for them to right the ship from a personnel perspective. Taylor has tons of exprerience on WC and coaching good offenses, while April has very tangible experience on the Wisco staff doing more with less.

Gambling View: a team to hold your nose, but probably back.

UCLA

New DC: D'Anton Lynn (Ravens safeties)

Grade: D-

He has never called defensive plays in his career as a coordinator and has never coachced in college.

Gambling View: still overs.

Washington State

New OC: Ben Arbuckle (WKU OC)

New DC: Jeff Schmedding (Auburn DC)

Grade: C+

Arbuckle is a good hire. He should be able to implement a spread, air raid attack with Wazzou. Schmedding on the other hand is pretty underwhelming. A little bit more TBD on Schmedding.

Gambling View: Possibly an over team if Ward is unlocked.

Alabama

New OC: Tommy Rees (Notre Dame OC)

New DC: Kevin Steele (Miami DC, Auburn DC)

Grade: B-

Rees is pretty unproven at this juncture and given the stature of Saban and Bama, they likely could have swung a bit bigger here. Steele has tons of SEC-W experience with his time at Auburn and should be "fine."

Gambling View: Unders given the pace Rees will likely run.

Arkansas

New OC: Dan Enos (Maryland OC)

New DC: Travis Williams (UCF DC)

Grade: C+

Enos has a good pedigree with Maryland's offense, though the 2022 year leaves a few question marks. Travis WIlliams was the DC at UCF and they declined from 42nd to 95th from 2021 to 2022. Not ideal with 7 returning starters in 2022.

Gambling View: overs team and one to fade as favorites.

Auburn

New HC: Hugh Freeze (Liberty HC)

New OC: Phillip Montgomery (Tulsa HC)

New DC: Ron Roberts (Baylor DC)

Grade: A-

Freeze knows the south and the SEC-W. This should be a good hire in time. Freeze has the offensive concepts down and Roberts has deep south and Texas connections and has done a good job in his stops at ULL and Baylor under Aranda.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Florida

New DC: Austin Armstrong (So Mmiss DC)

Grade: B-

Armstrong has limited DC experience but in his 2 years at So Miss they struggled, then improved to being ranked 48th in the country.

Gambling View: Unders as they play a more sound defense.

Georgia

New OC: Mike Bobo (Georgia Analyst)

Grade: B

Bobo has tons of OC and HC experience and was on staff with Monken so knows what works for the Bulldogs. Will likely add a few wrinkles, but not change much.

Gambling View: Neutral.

Kentucky

New OC: Liam Coen (Rams OC)

Grade: B+

Coen did great in his one year stint with UK but coming back without Levis and some other top talent will be a different challenge, but they should improve.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Mississippi State

New HC: Zach Arnett (Miss St DC)

New OC: Kevin Barbay (App St OC)

New DC: Matt Brock (Miss St LB)

Grade: D+

Arnett has no previous coaching experience and has been a DC only since 2018, with only 3 seasons experience in the SEC, and before that has only been at SDSU. Barbay was fine at App State, and Brock should continue what Arnett has done on D.

Gambling View: Team to fade and Unders.

Missouri

New OC: Kirby Moore (Fresno St OC)

Grade: C-

Only one season as an OC calling plays and was in a pretty decent situation at Fresno St. Very different story calling plays against SEC defenses.

Gambling View: Team to fade and Unders.

Ole Miss

New DC: Pete Golding (Alabama DC)

Grade: B

Things may not have worked out for Golding at Bama but he was the DC for 4 years and before that, a DC at multiple other schools. I wouldn't expect a fall-off here.

Gambling View: Neutral.

South Carolina

New OC: Dowell Loggains (Arkansas TE)

Grade: D+

Loggains has a long track record as a NFL OC but little as a college one and his reviews aren't great. SC could have done much better.

Gambling View: Neutral, but a possible fade or Unders.

Tennessee

New OC: Joey Halze (Tenny QB)

Grade: B

Zero play calling experience but this will be a heavy handed offense by Josh Heupel.

Gambling View: Unders early while Halze figures out the playcalling.

Texas A&M

New OC: Bobby Petrino (Missouri St HC)

Grade: B

Petrino has tons of offensive and SEC experience, but it all depends if he's the one calling the plays.

Gambling View: Team to back.

Sun Belt

Appalachian State

New OC: Frank Ponce (Miami PGC, App St OC)

New DC: Scot Sloan (Ga So DC)

Grade: C+

Both guys have experience at App State frm the late 2010s so my guess is the team goes back to that mold and gets away from the heavy passing attack we saw under Brice.

Gambling View: Unders and if defense looks strong, team to back as a dog.

Coastal Carolina

New HC: Tim Beck (NC St OC)

New OC: Travis Trickett (USF OC)

New DC: Craig Naivar (SMU STC, USC Safeties, Texas Co-DC)

Grade: B-

I'm not the biggest fan of Beck's but I think Trickett could be one of the hottest coordinators in football in a few years. Naivar has very little DC experience over a long career so I am skeptical the defense improves.

Gambling View: Overs.

Georgia Southern

New DC: Brandon Bailey (Buffalo DC, A&M Analyst)

Grade: C+

Bailey is very young and has one season as a DC under his belt at Buffalo and it was fine. I'm not sure what he does with the D here, but they could have done worse I think.

Gambling View: Neutral.

Georgia State

New DC: Chad Staggs (Coastal DC, Furman DC)

Grade: D+

The Coastal D had one season where they were ranked in the Top 100, so outside of some recruiting ties to the south, I'm not sure this hire will move the needle much at all.

Gambling View: Overs and a team to fade against good offenses.

Marshall

New DC: Jason Semore (GT STC/Safeties)

Grade: C-

Semore has very little DC experience under his belt so Marshall may go from one of the better G5 DCs to an unknown.

Gambling View: Overs.

Old Dominion

New OC: Kevin Decker (Fordham OC)

Grade: A-

Decker has led his QB to Patriot League 1st team player of year for past 3 years, leading FCS in passing yards per game, TDs, and total offense.

Gambling View: Overs.

Texas State

New HC: GJ Kinne (Incarnate Word HC)

New OC: Mack Leftwich (Incarnate Word OC)

New DC: Jonathan Patke (Incarnate Word DC)

Grade: B+

Texas St going with the WKU approach of hiring an entire FCS staff who leads a prolific offense. It probably works.

Gambling View: Overs and team to back.