2023 Preview: Virginia

The Cavaliers had a tough season on all fronts. It was Tony Elliott’s first year on the job and his first time as a head coach, and that showed early in the season. The former Clemson OC replaced Bronco Mendenhall who somewhat abruptly stepped down from the role. Brennan Armstrong really struggled in the new offensive system and Virginia proceeded to lose their first 3 conference games before the bye week. The silver-lining to a poor season was Virginia played In a lot of tight games. They lose to Cuse by 2, Miami by 2, UNC by 3, so maybe there was more than the record, but surprisingly, the offense was the downfall here, which was/is Tony Elliott’s background. And then of course there was the horrible shooting by a former teammate that essentially cancelled their season early. Ideally the first season was viewed as a Year 0 for Elliott and their staff.

The offense was really poor. After Brennan Armstrong led one of the more prolific offenses under Bronco Mendenhall, they fell from being ranked 10th in the country to 81st. That’s a precipitous fall and not a good representation of the former Clemson offensive coordinator now head coach Tony Elliott. They just couldn’t get much going at all. They ranked 104th in yards to go, indicating they really struggled to put drives together and that stemmed from having a tough time down to down where they ranked 94th in offensive success rate. The offensive line couldn’t do much to help them, but they did run the ball better than they passed it, which is once again, an indictment on the current staff given just how well they passed the ball in the prior season.

The defense on the other hand did quite a bit of things well and the defensive hire of John Rudzinski was a great one. He led some great defenses at Air Force and he brought a lot of that here to Virginia. The defensive front wasn’t going to overwhelm you with havoc, though they did do a good job of getting sacks, but the back end of this defense was going to make it really hard to consistently drive the field on them. The run defense and in particular the linebackers were extremely good and in the right position, ranking 8th in hi-lite YPR and 32nd in explosive rushes allowed. This defense may give you a little bit, but they rarely gave you a lot.

Things clearly weren’t working for Brennan Armstrong last year, and he elected to enter the portal and transfer to conference foe NC State to rejoin his former offensive coordinator Robert Anae. That left UVA in a pretty tough spot at the QB position. Jay Woolfork was the best quarterback in the system but he lacked much experience so the staff elected to bring in Tony Muskett.

Muskett was the former quarterback at Monmouth who was a 3 year starter. Here is a quote from Streaking the Lawn, a UVA focused SBnation blog:

One of the big concerns for Muskett will likely be the offensive line. NC State lost their experienced OL coach Garrett Tujague to NC State, of course, and the returning production is pretty barren. They return Ty Furnish at center, but after that, there is no returning starter and they went in the portal to brin gin Brian Stevens from the University of Dayton to play the left side. There is little experience here both in the depth or 2 deep and this could be one of the worst offensive lines in the Power 5.

The skill positions aren’t in much better shape. Perris Jones returns at the running back position with Kobe Pace transfering in from Clemson to compete/take over as league back in this offense, as he has familiarity with Elliott when he was the coordinator at Clemson. With this offensive line, I struggle to see this rushing attack being better than it was last year.

And the pass game only returns Grant Misch at tight end, while losing their top 3 targets/starters at WR from 2022. They landed Malik Washington in the portal from Northwestern and he could be pretty solid, but once again, a really green unit here. Dakota Twitty was a really nice recruit and stands 6’4 so he should push for playing time, as will JR Wilson, also 6’4. Combine those two with Malachi Fields who slots in as a starter and that’s 3 WRs at 6’4, so even without the experience, they will definitely have a height advantage against defenders – so there’s something.

Defense

While the offense is struggling with experience and returning starters, the defense is completely different. The defense improved from a horrible year under Mendenhall to move up to be ranked 41st last year, and they’re positioned nicely again for 2023.

They return 4 starters up front who combine for 95 starts and this unit may lack the upside of other teams but combined, they should make an experienced unit that should only get better. They’re in a pretty good place with the 2 deep as well, as 89% of the production returns here so not only should they have experience in the starters, but there should be a solid rotation of backups as well.

The linebacker group which was stellar last year returns James Jackson to the fold, but they lose Nick Jackson to the portal who led the team in tackles. The depth behind these two was really thin, so they’ll slot in Josh Ahern who has played quite a bit in his career, but his upside is likely limited. I’d expect this group to drop off.

The DB position is where they experience the most turnover, but they used the portal wisely to add some skill here. They return 3 starters at safety,s o that position should be relatively squared away with some decent depth behind those starters, but the cornerback spot is going to be spotty atleast on the onset. They brought in 3 guys from the portal at CB: Tayvonn Kyle from Iowa State, Malcolm Greene from Clemson and Sam Westfall from SMU. Greene would have been the highest graded recruit in the entire secondary so it’s likely he’ll be on the field quite a bit. All 3 of the transfers come in with some starting experience, so I’d keep an eye out for the CBs, but it should be a decent secondary.

Summary

The offense brought in an intriguing QB but everything else around him is a huge question mark, especially the offensive line. Hard to see this offense being overly dynamic. The defense returns a ton of players from what was a pretty solid unit in 2022. This feels like an under team.