MAILBAG! Week 0

Ended with a BONUS section here because it's a short week.

How do you finally arrive on a number for a game?

If you look at the stat profiles, the bottom right is a score prediction for how the game will play out on paper if they played in 100x. As we know, there are tail risk events (or standard deviation) that come into play during a game when random things happen that effect the outcome of a game. A bad penalty on a touchdown play, a special teams score, etc. Those are really tough/impossible to predict, but should be considered. So when I look at a score projection from the stat profiles, I then begin adjusting it based on more qualitative research.

That score projection is made up of what the team has done historically, to predict what they will do in the future. If a starting running back is out, how will that effect the prediction? What about weather? Do I think a unit is trending in the right direction and historical isn't really representative of how they'll play in the upcoming game?

From that, I'll come up with a final score and then I'll decide if I'm going to make a play, which oftentimes is consideration of if I think that some of those tail risk events could effect my play (ie: if there is a bad score, is that going to blow my cover? or will it send the game over?). Generally you'll see that for an UNDER, I'll have a score projection that is usually 4-7 points lower than what the actual vegas total currently is. By design.

What is your overall advice for people who miss the “good to” number on any release. Obviously the easy answer is to simply pass but there is nothing worse than passing on a +11.5 that’s good to +13 and the team ends up covering the 11.5 anyways. I am a new sub this year and simply want to bet the same unit size on every single play.

You alluded to it, but I'd just be wary of key numbers. 13 to 11.5 isn't the biggest difference, but 7.5 to 5.5 is. Or 4 to 2.5. Simple advice? A half point that doesn't go off a key number is probably fine to still play.

What are rotation numbers? I'm based in the UK and they aren't used at any bookmaker here. I've only just started to get -/+ numbers despite betting football for 7 years as we use fractions here.

Alot of US books list them. It's a number defined by Vegas for each team. You can see it on any odd screen and in alot of books. See below, the 299 and 300 for Navy and Notre Dame, etc.

Moving forward, I'm going to try and list the time of the game during releases as well.

Any thoughts on a lunch money RR week 0 or week 1?

How about a degen pizza money ML parlay for Week 0 + Week 1?

Seems to be a popular question! Lets go with:

Ohio, South Carolina, So Bama, FSU

If you couldn’t get some of the initial Wix releases, any advice on what to do? I’m thinking of playing that over LIVE after the game begins but don’t want to play miami under when I missed the line by 2 points. Thanks

Yeah, I think Live isn't the worst option. I wouldn't play it blindly if the game starts and things look way different than I predicted, but if things go slightly against us early, you could get as good of a number or better I wouldn't chase if you weren't able to get the number unless the number comes back into range. Thanks to muscle man tunes, the Purdue total fluttered up a little bit before moving back down.

Are you betting your plays before they get sent out? If so, are you generally getting down off screen or playing at places like bm/pinn that a) have auto movers and b) have market influence/copiers?

I get down 100% off screen. I wouldn't think to be getting down at BM, Pinn etc. and don't think many others should either.

What is the game you are most looking forward to from the perspective of learning more about one or both of the teams for this season?

Week 0: USC (see their defense), ND (see their offense)

Any of the Heisman picks still have value at current prices? I was out of pocket during official release.

Would pass on these for now. Some may come into range, and I will post about it, after Week 1.

If you’re live betting and had to narrow it to 1-2 variables, what are the things you’re looking at either stats or eye test that tell you to take a position?

Inopportune turnovers

Non offnensive scores

Basically things that change the game state without a team deserving that.

BONUS: Here are my thoughts on the games tomorrow that I didn't play (yet).

Navy v ND

Made this 11 last year and think that both teams are slated to improve this season. Think the Navy D could take another step forward. Last year Navy sold out to stop the ND run and force ND To pass it and it pretty much worked for them to the best it could have. This year, ND probably can beat that strategy. Navy offense has quite a bit of experience as well. Not sure that ND has the dudes on the line, but given some extra time to prep for the option, they probably will be able to slow it down.

2 factors that I wonder about:

1. weather. I don't care about rain slowing things down and in fact, a little rain tends to be a bit better for an offense, but keep an eye on the radar.

2. chop block rule. Rumor is that the officials will be calling that much more strict this year, which would really take away from Navy's offensive game plan.

Lean: Navy and the over (wait and see if you get a 48)

FIU v La Tech

I really wanted a piece of La Tech here, but wanted under 10 and that escaped. I made this 17 last year, but when you factor out garbage time, I made it much closer to the current. LT defense was a dumpster last year but it should get better - the question is just how much. Still missing alto of pieces there. Not sure that FIU will be able to throw their way back into this, but not sure that La Tech will be able to seal this game. They are down to their 3rd string running back. Total feels right and at this number, backdoor is likely very open.

SJSU v USC

As I tweeted earlier this week...applies here.

Just depends on how long Riley wants to keep in the starters. Once the backups come in, I do think SJSU will probably put up some points. Feels 45-20 type of game. USC is probably giving too many points.

Ohio v SDSU

My numbers like Ohio in this one as they have the better offense here but I'm a bit skeptical of their defense being any good. I think SDSU probably takes a step back here on defense. Lean over in this one and Ohio, but don't love playing MAC schools when they have to step up in class (though I'm not sure SDSU qualifies as that).

UTEP v Jax State

Leaned over, that got blasted early in the week. Rich Rod offense going to go really fast, and not sure that they'll play that much defense. UTEP offense is pretty experienced and should be able to score with them here.

Hawaii v Vanderbilt

Vandy dropped 60 on Hawaii last year and while Hawaii should be better, not an easy travel assignment for them. Lean Vandy and over here.