MAILBAG! Week 5

Do you have any idea on the volume of money that gets put into the market based on your plays? Reason I ask is that a very well known and respected podcast gave out TCU -12 yesterday at around 1pm est and it pretty much stayed there for most of the day. You gave out TCU -12.5 and it's instantly gone to -14.

I don't know the exact amount, but my guess is it's pretty easily into the 7 figure range.

I’m pretty confident that Clemson is better than Notre Dame. I know that Puke is better than Syracuse. Yet, Clemson and Notre Dame are laying almost the same number this week. Am I missing something here? I know Clemson is 2-2, but both losses were hilariously flukey and I still think they’re one of the best teams in the country.

Don't think you're missing too much at all. I think there's a lot of "does this team get off the mat" baked into both of those lines, I think, especially Clemson's. I think the Cuse numbers for people are all over the place as well, so that could also be having a bit of an effect on the pricing of those games.

Similar to how you offer ML upsets and RR plays, could you also suggest heavy ML favorites to use in a parlay? Teams you really can't see losing each week.

In addition to playing all of your releases, I typically like to do a ML parlay with all favorites (4-8 teams). I've had a lot of success with it, and I usually get it to + money. For example, this week Texas, Georgia, Michigan, Bama, TCU, and Washington pays +121.

ML RR: UConn, UF, So Bama, Houston, Mich St, So Miss

FAV Parlay: USC, Tulane, UGA, TCU, Bama, Washington - should be close to +100

Do you play look ahead lines often? What would be your thoughts on the following:

Texas -4.5 v OU

PSU +6.5 @ OSU

Oregon +3.5 @ Wash

USC +2.5 @ ND

I rarely do, not for any really good reason though. I'd probably take PSU and Oregon at those, but not running to the book. I think you'll get similar numbers on the dates when those games are played unless there is some big injury, so probably not much value in doing it now.

Second question this week, but my gut (and hopefully not my bias as an Alabama fan) tells me that Bama to win the SEC west is a good bet. Bama doesn't have the perfect QB situation, but I think the full on panic is overblown. TXAM just lost their starter (and one of our Hesiman bets) Weigman for the season, LSU seems like their secondary is ripe to get taken advantage of by a better team than Arkansas for at least a loss. Bama LSU is also a double revenge game for the Tide (LSU beat Alabama last year and is Saban's old program in general - I know you don't believe in intangible bullshit like this but you said it doesn't hurt). Arkansas, Auburn, Miss St, and Ole Miss now have conference losses with Ole Miss' loss coming to the Crimson Tide and I never really believed any team besides Bama/LSU/TXAM had a shot at the West to begin with. Alabama's only loss to date is also non conference. Thoughts?

Yeah, it makes sense for all of the reasons that you laid out. Bama won't be an underdog the rest of the season but they'll have short numbers (less than 10) against probably A&M, Tenny, LSU and maybe Kentucky. I like them in all of the matchups that you alluded too and like them because of the Arkansas, Ole Miss, Miss St and Auburn conference situation. It likely comes down tot he LSU game, of which they're a very short fav. What is the West price? Depends on that but think it is a decent bet, or you could just lay the -150 or whatever it is against LSU.

Is there a rule of thumb on what we should play when we don't get in on the Telegram alert. For example, the alert was Houston +10, currently seeing Houston +8.5 and you project Houston to lose by 3. Recognizing that coming off the 10 is big, we're still seeing 5.5 points of value, and not crossing the 6,7 & 8 seems like it would still be a play. Does that logic make sense (completely understand everyone's risk profile is different...but wanted to put it out there) Thanks for everything you do!

I would be okay if things didn't go through a key number still playing the side. For example, 4.5 to 5.5 isn't a huge deal. Or -14.5 to -16.5. Not the end of the world. But if things went from -4.5 to -6.5, I wouldn't go that far, or -14.5 to -17.5, I wouldn't do that either. I would say a good rule of thumb is the number released at -120, or without the hook. So if released +7.5, 7 is still fine, I wouldn't play it at 6.5. And -120 is fine given the track record of performance, that math still makes sense long term.

What do you make of OUs start. They’ve done what they’re supposed to which isn’t saying much expect it seems like this year a lot of teams aren’t doing that (Bama vs UCF, FSU vs BC, UGA vs 1Hs). What is the ceiling for this team and can they beat Texas next week?

They definitely can beat Texas. The spread will be opened somewhere under a TD, so they're certainly in that one. Do I think they do it? Probably not but they are really solid. As you alluded, their schedule has been dog doo so far for the most part, but they are doing what they are supposed to do, when alot of teams aren't. Now at the end of the season, will an undefeated Michigan have issues that they won a game 35-7 instead of 52-3? No, and they're playing their games as such. Getting more granular, it seems like BV really figured out the defense and made this Oklahoma team a really tough out each week, and the offense is schematically good enough that with this type of defense, they're a top 15 team quite easily. There is a reason we bet over on their already pretty high win total! The schedule set up really nicely and this is still a very talented team and they look the part.

Any interest in any natty futures? Michigan 4-1 and Washington 20-1 may have missed the boat but could be meet on bone as I know you’ve spoken highly of those two teams. Those or any others you may see value in.

No real desire on either of those personally. We hold a JJ Heisman ticket and if they're in the Natty convo I think that's a much better bet to be holding and Washington at 20-1 doesn't do enough for me, especially given I have a PAC12 ticket on them too. I like this Washington team but this defense is very exposable and hasn't been exposed yet. It's not a good unit and while the offense is awesome, think they've had some advantageous scheduling. They still have a really tough stretch of games.

That said, this is the most wide open the playoff race has been, so there is probably some value there. FSU ending slate isn't as easy as we once thought. It's a Miami matchup, @ the Swamp and then the AAC Title game so not getting enough at 9/1 to bet them knowing that if they win out, they prob get the 2/3 seed and probably face OSU or Michigan...no thanks.

The big question is who gets in at the 4 seed and do you like their matchup against Georgia. Washington could be interesting there honestly, just not sure they get in. USC or Oregon as well. Both of those teams really stretch the field and as we saw last year against OSU, that's kinda the recipe to possible try and upset this UGA team. No thanks at current prices though with remaining schedules.

What odds would you need for Cam Ward heisman?

- 4-0 record

- 1,390 yards

- 13 TD / 0 int + 3 rushing TDs

- 2 ranked wins (both as underdog)

- 4 more ranked or big time games (UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Washington)

- 86.4 QBR (10th in CFB)

- Field in which no one right now is the clear runaway with the award (in my opinion)

- Public acknowledgement that you underrated Wazzou in priors (as most did, but mentioning it here because greater likelihood of winning more games would correlate with greater likelihood of Ward heisman).

Thoughts on Heisman bets? Seems likely Ewers and Travis should stay in contention, while a few are certainly out of the picture as well. Do Daniels or McNamara have a chance to re-enter the conversation?

Will tag team these.

As it relates to Ward: I would need 80/1 or more? I like him and Wazzou, but they'd need to probably win out/only lose one of those big games, and even then, I'm not sure he gets it unless there is chaos with everyone else. He doesn't get enough coverage and I bet half the voters couldn't tell you who he plays for right now.

Ewers, Travis, JJ and Daniels are very alive. Penix is deservedly the leader in the clubhouse right now, but I think that we'll see some Heisman cannibalization by the PAC 12 here. Penix or Caleb is guaranteed to lose on 11/4 which probably pushes one of them out of the race, especially if it's Caleb. I'm on record saying the only way that Caleb gets it is if USC is undefeated and they look the part.

Penix is likely out of the running if they lose to Oregon, USC, Utah, Oregon State or Wazzou, all possible. I don't think Washington gets out of that unscathed so I have a feeling he may fall by the wayside given Washington will probably be out of the playoff hunt at that juncture.

So that leaves who? Hartman is probably out given the OSU game. The OSU offense is such a downgrade from last year that we don't have McCord. Carson Beck is good but not that good.

So that leaves Ewers, Nix, Travis, Daniels, Gabriel, JJ, TVD, Ward, Maye.

I don' think UNC is going undefeated so throw that one out. Ewers or Gabriel will win next week and Texas is a 7 point favorite probably so my lean is still Ewers there. Nix has to deal with @ Wash, Wazzou, @ Utah, USC, Oregon ST and I think there is probably a loss in there, so he probably falls out.

Penix wins if they win out.

Ewers is in NYC if they win out.

Nix in NYC if they win out (don't think they do)

Travis in NYC if they win out (some big games down the stretch to gather votes)

JJ in the convo if they win out.

TVD in the convo if they win out (don't think their WRs are good enough and they go @ UNC, Clemson, @ NC State, @ FSU, VIlle) - they lose in there.

Ward won't win out.

So...long winded explanation of feeling like we have some pretty good bets. Doesn't look that way right now, but come back to me in a month and think we may be holding the favorite.

I feel like i'm taking crazy pills - i see Clemson o7.5 season win totals out there. They've had one fluky half against Duke where they didn't punt, and then lost to FSU on a Def TD and missed 29 yard FG. Am i really being naïve that this team has 3 more losses the rest of the way, or is the market just massively overreacting?

Insanely stupid line. I would bet that over if you haven't already.

Is the SEC west…bad? Can any team compete with UGA in the SEC title game?

It's not bad, there just isn't a juggernaut as we're used too with Bama so it seems bad. I would argue the SEC East is worse with just one top tier quality team while the SEC W may have a few, but they're going to cannibalize each other. If you want a team that can beat UGA, it's definitely LSU or Bama still and I'd lean LSU personally. Not sure they'll get that chance though.

Do you have a group you work with to shape lines during the week?

Yes and I'm going to plead the 5th on commenting anymore. I'm a pretty open book with you guys on most everything but if I don't think it's advantageous to you all to share intel, then I won't do it. Here is a case of that.

What do you think is the most likely playoff composition by conference (i.e, 1 Big 12, 1 Big 10, 1 ACC, 1 SEC)?

ACC 1

B1G 1

B12 1

SEC 1

How about an update on season win totals? Where do you feel good and not-so-good?

That's 19 positive, 7 negative and 6 neutral. So if all of the neutral went against us, still should be a winning endeavor but doubt that happens. I tried to be as conservative as possible.

How many 2023 datapoints do you need before you completely throw out the 2022 numbers?

Normally around 4 games for a team is when I start to phase out prior seasons, so next week we'll definitely be there.

I find it interesting when you say you will have a release several hours later or even the next day, what specific information are you looking for? Why not release earlier so line doesn't move against you?

I'm not waiting for more info, I'm just trying to make the releases as easy as possible for a large group to get by keeping things scheduled. I think in prior seasons when the service was maybe smaller, it wasn't as big of a deal to just release something at any time. That's not really fair now given what will happen to the lines. Occasionally a line will move against me but I still have plenty of +EV stuff to release so if one moves, it's not the end of the world. I'd rather make sure everyone can access the release vs releasing stuff at all times.