Stat Profiles - Explained

In the above, you will see 6 blue numbers (also attached if too small to analyze here).

This is a brief explanation of each specific number.

#1: This is the matchup, and as I did each profile, I posted some quick thoughts on the O and D of each team. I will keep these thoughts in the profiles till probably around Week 4.

#2: This area is the relative performance of each game. Currently, you will see the 2021 games for each team, but after Week 1, I will likely switch it so that you see the upcoming schedule and the Week 1 relative performance.

What is relative performance? From a post when I introduced in 2021:

After you see the team "Score", "Spread" and "Total", you'll see what looks like a Christmas Tree. This is some teams advanced stats output from each game.

Rel: Stands for Relative Performance. This is looking at how the team we're assessing did in their game against their opponents season long average in each stat.

So for example, under O SR (Offensive Success Rate), you'll see the teams O SR - normally between 35% and 55% - and then next to it you'll see "Rel". In this case, if the number is green, its a good thing, and if it's red it's a bad thing. If the number is green, it means that the team we are looking for out-performed their opponents season long O Success Rate allowed.

For example, if you have 50% in the game in offensive success rate and you see 5% for "Rel," it means your opponents season long offensive success rate allowed is 45%. You outperformed what they let up on average.

D SR: Defensive Success Rate

O SD SR: Offensive Standard Down Success Rate

D SD SR: Defensive Standard Down Success Rate

O P SR: Offensive Passing Success Rate

D P SR: Defensive Passing Success Rate

O R SR: Offensive Rushing Success Rate

D R SR: Defensive Rushing Success Rate

O Expl: Offensive Explosive Play %

D Expl: Defensive Explosive Play %

Pace: What is the average seconds between plays? How fast is it vs the rest of the NCAA?

How I intend on using this:

I think its a really good way to spot teams that have turned a corner. When we use season long stats to assess how a team may perform in a predictive model, we may not be giving enough credence to what they have done to change and get better. This helps us try and spot those instances.

#3: This is an area to get a quick overview of some really key categories and how team ranks.

Talent: what is the rank of the talent that the team will actually put on the field? This is comprised of individual player grades for the starters, the 2-deep and the recruiting ranks. You see this broken out for both offense and defense as well.

SOS: Strength of Schedule (it will be 2021 strength until we introduce the 2022 numbers.

Pace: Where does a team rank in how fast they are playing?

Net EPA: Combination of how good their offense is + defense

Net Explosiveness: judge of how good they are on a net basis for explosiveness (combo of O and D)

NET OL/DL: How good are they in the trenches?

Net Y2G: How good are they at picking up available yards given to them vs stopping opponents from doing the same

#4: For each specific position group, I highlight really important stats for an offense and a defense. I use these to ultimately adjust the projections in #6.

#5: For pre-season, I have position ranks that are comprised of 2021 Year End. To the left and right of each position rank, you will see the percentage of returning production that each group has. If the color is Green, I think that position group will improve. If it's Red, I think it will take a step back, and black is stay neutral.

#6: This is ultimately how I get a baseline for how I think a game will go. I make adjustments to it, based on everything mentioned in #1-5.